我国贸易条件波动与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用协整及格兰杰因果关系检验,采用我国1981—2007年数据,对价格贸易条件的水平及波动与我国经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:价格贸易条件恶化是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而经济增长不是价格贸易条件恶化的格兰杰原因,贸易条件波动的降低对我国经济增长有正面影响。消费率相对较低,投资增速过快,生产相对过剩,而出于就业与经济增长的压力,以汇率管制、出口退税等方式增加出口,正是我国在该时期贸易条件恶化、出口不断增加和经济快速增长现象同时并存的原因。因此我国应采取理顺贸易条件对消费、投资和储蓄的影响机制,使贸易条件的改善最终成为经济增长的动力。

An Empirical Study on Relationship between Trade Terms Volatility and Economic Growth in China

We analyze empirically relationship between volatility of trade terms and economic growth in China by using co-integration test and Granger cause-effect test with data from 1981 to 2007.Empirical results show that the deterioration in trade terms of price is the Granger cause of economic growth while economic growth is not,and that fall in volatility of trade terms has positive impact on growth.The low rate of consumption,rapid investment,relative production surplus,and export increase,result of employment pressure and export tax rebate are the exact reasons of co-existence of the deterioration in trade terms and increase in export and rapid growth.Thus,we have to improve trade terms and optimize the system of consumption,investment and saving in order that improvement in trade term becomes stimulus of economic growth.