公路军事交通运输勤务综合演习项目GERT网络模型研究与分析

运用随机网络理论 ,构建了在现代高技术战争条件下 ,“红、兰”军双方激烈对抗时 ,公路军事交通运输勤务系统运行过程的 GERT网络模型 ,并举例求出了其解析解 .在此基础上 ,提出了演习 (或战争 )时 ,公路军事交通运输保障的“失败”概率与“转移”(战术、战役或战略转移 )概率的概念 ,并对其因素构成及其相互关系进行了剖析 .

Research on Random Network Model for Synthetic Manoeuver Projection of Military Traffic Transportation Service by Highway

In this paper, by using the random network theory, a GERT network model is constructed, to describe the process that, under modern high technical conditions, military transportation of service systems are moved when the "red" and "blue" army are antagonizing intensively. For a given example, analytic solutions of the model are made. Then based on the model, the concepts of probability of being defeated and transperring (tactics, campaign and strategic transfer probability) are proposed, and factors that affect the probability as well as rebationship are analyzed.