1961～2011年山东地区气温变化的区域差异特征及突变分析

利用山东地区17个气象站1961 ～2011年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等资料,采用线性倾向率法、Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法等方法,分析了山东地区近50年的气温变化特征和突变特征.结果表明：1961 ～2011年山东地区各气象站年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均呈现增温趋势,平均增温速率分别为0.22℃/10a、0.17℃/10a和0.33℃/10a,年平均最低温度的上升幅度大于年平均最高温度的上升幅度,山东地区气候变暖主要体现在年最低温度的升高上.近50年来山东地区气温变化过程具有显著的阶段性,而不是单调递增.山东地区增温主要发生在最近的20余年内,各气象站点的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温集中在20世纪80年代末至90年代初发生增温性突变.山东地区气候变暖的区域差异比较明显,龙口地区的年平均气温增温最明显；年平均最高气温增温最为明显的是日照地区；龙口地区年平均最低气温增温趋势较为显著.

Regional Differences in Temperature Change Characteristics and Abrupt Change Analysis for Shandong Area During 1961 ～ 2011

Based on the relevant data from 17 meteorological stations in Shandong area during the period of 1961 to 2011, such as the daily average temperature, annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature, the methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and accumulated difference curve were used to analyze the characteristics of the variation and the abrupt change of the temperature in recent 50 years. The results indicated that the annual average temperature, annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature all showed warming trend in Shandong area from 1961 to 2011 and the average warming rates were 0. 22℃/10a,0. 17℃/10a and 0. 33℃/10a,respectively. The increase of the annual mean minimum temperature was greater than that of the annual mean maximum temperature, which displayed that the annual minimum temperature rising made contribution to the climate warming in Shandong area. The tempera- ture changing trend was of marked characteristic of stage rather than monotonically increasing over the last 50 years. In some areas of Shandong, climate warming heavily concentrated in recent 20 years while the abrupt change of the annual average temperature, annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature mostly appeared from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. Generally, the climate warming of Shandong Province had remarkable regional characteristic, the related data demonstrated that the annual mean maximum temperature rising in Rizhao region was most obvious, and both the annual mean minimum temperature rising and the annual average temperature rising in Longkou region were especially evident.