Risk reduction in a project portfolio |
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| Authors: | Dujuan Guan Peng Guo Keith W. Hipel Liping Fang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an,China;2.Department of Management,Hefei University,Hefei,China;3.Department of Systems Design Engineering,University of Waterloo,Waterloo,Canada;4.Centre for International Governance Innovation,Waterloo,Canada;5.Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering,Ryerson University,Toronto,Canada |
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| Abstract: | The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling. |
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