气候变化对河北省冬小麦产量的影响——以栾城县为例

基于中国科学院栾城农业生态系统实验站,利用回归分析、T检验、Pearson相关分析和5年直线滑动平均法对河北省栾城县1980—2012年气温和降水的变化特征及其对冬小麦气候产量的影响进行了分析.结果表明:(1)通过对前一年10月—1月和3—5月的冬、春这两个时间段气温和降水的多年变化趋势进行分析发现栾城县冬春气温33年来有明显升高趋势,冬季气温平均每10年升高0.45℃,春季气温平均每10年升高0.75℃,而降水的变化不明显.(2)冬小麦的气候产量与冬、春的气温变化显著相关与降水量的变化相关性不大.(3)当冬季和春季均温都低时,气候产量也会随之较低,即不利于冬小麦生长;当冬季均温在1℃~2.5℃之间并且春季均温较高时,气候产量相对较高,即有利于冬小麦生长;当冬季均温在1℃~2℃之间且春季均温在13.85℃~14.85℃之间时则对冬小麦的生长更为有利.

The Influence of the Climatic Change on the Hebei Province Winter Wheat Output——A Case Study of Luancheng County

By using the regression analysis,the T-test,the Pearson correlation analysis and 5 years straight line glide method of average carries,the Hebei Province Luancheng County 1980—2012 year temperature and the precipitation meteorological data change characteristic and its influences on the winter wheat climate output were analyzed.The results showed :( 1) After analyzing weather temperate precipitation multi-annual variation tendency for the previous year from October and from March,the next year January to May winter fine spring,it was discovered that the Luancheng County winter spring temperature in the recent 33 years had the obvious ascension tendency,the winter temperature elevated equally 0.45 ℃ every ten years,Spring the temperature elevated 0.75 ℃ every ten years,but the precipitation change is not obvious.( 2) The correlation is remarkable between winter wheat's climate output and winter spring temperature change,but it is less with the precipitation change relevance.( 3) When the average temperature of winter and the spring are lower,the climate output is can be low along with it,which does not helpful to the winter wheat growth; When winter average temperature in 1 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ and the spring average temperature is high,the climate output is relative high,is advantageous in the winter wheat growth; the average temperature winter is in 1 ℃ to 2 ℃ 、ang the average temperature springin 13.85℃ to 14.85 ℃,then it is more advantageous to winter wheat's growth.