| 房地产市场投机泡沫实证分析——以青岛市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙继国,伍海华.房地产市场投机泡沫实证分析——以青岛市为例[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版),2010,23(1):67-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙继国 伍海华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛大学,经济学院,山东,青岛,266071;天津大学,管理学院,天津,300072
2. 青岛大学,经济学院,山东,青岛,266071 |
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| 摘 要： | 在投机泡沫理论的基础上建立了包含时滞变量的房地产投机泡沫检验模型,并对1999~2007年青岛市房地产市场投机度及历年泡沫含量及积累量进行了实证分析。研究结果表明青岛市房地产市场在历年发展过程中始终存在较大的投机性泡沫,投机性泡沫的产生主要集中在2001~2004年,在此期间,泡沫积累量呈持续上升趋势,且调整速度迅速。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产 投机泡沫 泡沫含量 |
Empirical Analysis on Speculation Bubble of Real Estate Market: Taking Qingdao as an Example |
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| SUN Ji-guo,WU Hai-hua.Empirical Analysis on Speculation Bubble of Real Estate Market: Taking Qingdao as an Example[J].Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition),2010,23(1):67-72. |
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| Authors: | SUN Ji-guo WU Hai-hua |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China; 2. School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China) |
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| Abstract: | A model that based on the theory of speculation bubble is developed to analyze speculation bub- ble of the real estate market. The speculation degree, bubble amount and the cumulative bubble amount of Qingdao real estate market during 199942007 are analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that there is always speculation bubble during 1999~2007, especially from 2001 to 2004, within which the cumulative bubble amount rises continuously and varies rapidly during this period. |
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| Keywords: | real estate market speculation bubble bubble amount |
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