基于前景理论的编队作战决心方案优选研究

针对信息化条件下编队指挥所的作战指挥决策问题,对编队作战指挥决策行为进行了分析,旨在为贴近实战解决不确定条件下的编队作战指挥决策问题探索新的途径。在此基础上,运用前景理论,研究了定下作战决心的风险决策问题。首先,给出了编队指挥所的作战指挥决策流程,基于此用数学形式描述了编队作战决心方案优选问题;然后,依据前景理论的决策框架,对所描述的问题进行求解方法研究,从而提出了基于前景理论的编队作战决心方案优选方法;最后,通过案例分析说明了所提方法的有效性。

Research on method of operational plan optimization for the warship formation based on prospect theory

In view of the issue of operational command decision-making of the formation command organization under the informationized conditions, the operational command decision making behavior is analyzed with an aim to solve the problem of operational command decision-making under the uncertain condition for the warship formation. Based on the above, utilizing the prospect theory, the risk decision-making is studied when the mind is made to operate. Firstly, the operational decision-making procedures are given, based on which, formation deciding to operate plan optimization is described in a way of mathematics. Then, according to the prospect theory decision-making frame, the solution for the described issue to put forward a decision-making analysis method based on the prospect theory. Finally, the effectiveness of this method is illustrated by a case analysis.