中国设计洪水研究回顾和最新进展

对设计洪水的计算途径和工作性质进行了简要述评,强调搞好设计洪水工作需要三大支撑:健全的资料信息、相对合理的分析计算方法,以及对设计流域(地区)水文气象规律的必要认识.并分别对这三个方面的实践、研究进行了回顾与简评,着重介绍了最新进展情况:2006年修订的<水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范>反映了频率分析法十多年来在参数估计和适线准则方面新进展;1999年出版的专著<可能最大暴雨和洪水计算原理与方法>全面系统地总结了中国1958年以来在PMP/PMF方面的生产实践经验和研究成果;1988-2006年先后出版的<中国历史大洪水>、<中国历史大洪水调查资料汇编>、<中国江河防洪丛书>、<中国暴雨>和<中国暴雨统计参数图集>,是中国的暴雨/洪水研究中的突出成果;2002年出版的专著<水文定理、定律和假说初探>和<水文设计成果合理性评价>,将许多规律性的认识,经过总结、归纳,上升成为理论;即将出版的世界气象组织<可能最大降水估算手册>(第3版),全面系统地介绍了中国PMP/PMF的新理论和实践经验.文章认为,中国设计洪水的总体水平已步入世界前列,并从多方面进行了论证.

Review and Recently Progress of Design Flood Work in China

A review of calculation methods of design flood and their working principles is presented in this paper. The three main supportive elements of design flood studies are emphasized: complete material information, reasonable methods of analysis and calculation, as well as necessary understanding for the hydrometeorology rules of the design basin. The practice and the research of the three aspects are discussed, respectively. The latest progresses include: "Regulation for Calculating Design Flood of Water Resources and Hydropower Projects", which was revised in 2006 and reflects the latest progress of the frequency analysis method in parameter estimation and curve fitting criteria during the past decade; "Principles and Methods of PMP/PMF Calculations", which was published in 1999 and had systematically and completely summarized the working experience and the research work in PMP/ PMF field in China since 1958; prominent achievements in China's rainstorm/flood studies, represented by "Historical Flood in China","The Collection of Investigated Historical Flood in China", "The series of flood control in Chinese rivers", "Rainstorms in China" and "Chinese Rainstorms Statistical Parameter Atlas" published from 1988 to 2006; "Preliminary Study on Hydrologic Theorems, Laws and Hypotheses" and "Rationality Evaluation of Design Results in Hydrology" published in 2002, which summarized many experiences in theoretical level; "Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation" (third edition) of World Meteorological Organization which systematically introduces the new theory and practice of China PMP/PMF to be published soon. It is shown that the general level of China design flood has stepped into the forefront of the world.