我国棉花市场的波动性探析

棉花作为一项农产品，由于受自然条件的影响大，产量存在较大的波动性。“入世”以来我国棉花出口逐年减少，进口持续增加，导致国内的棉花供给严重依赖进口，国内外棉价的联动性不断增强。笔者通过对近年来中国棉花在产量、进口量以及价格等方面的数据进行分析，认为目前我国的棉花市场存在较大的波动性。因此，为了稳定国内棉花市场，需要适度增加棉花种植面积、健全棉花目标价格补贴政策，并加快棉农生产方式转变。

Study on the Volatility of China's Cotton Market

As an important farm product, cotton output is highly unstable because of great influence of natural situation. After China＇s accession to the WTO, the cotton export has been decreased while import has been increased year by year. Consequently, China is over-dependent on import cotton from abroad, and the cc~movement of cotton price at home and abroad is reinforced. By analyzing the yield, import and price of cotton in recent years, the writer finds that China＇s cotton market is volatile. In order to stabilize the domestic market of cotton, we need to increase the acreage for cotton production, improve the policy of target price subsidy and accelerate the change of production mode.