| 长江中游地区洪涝灾害风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雪臣,冷春香,冯相昭,邹骥,马珊. 长江中游地区洪涝灾害风险分析[J]. 科技导报(北京), 2008, 26(2): 61-66 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雪臣 冷春香 冯相昭 邹骥 马珊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局,北京,100081;中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京,100081;中国人民大学环境学院,北京,100872 |
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| 基金项目： | 英国政府Stern Reviews Team资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过确定洪涝指数,对长江中游地区洪涝灾害的强度特征进行了分析,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对该地区极端降水事件的发生概率进行了模拟。结果表明,长江中游地区洪涝灾害发生频繁,灾害损失严重,极端降水事件发生的概率风险很大,洪涝灾害和灾情的关系较为密切。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪涝灾害 强度特征 概率风险 灾情 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7857（2008）02-0061-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-10-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-10-15 |
Risk Analysis of Flood Disaster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River |
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| WANG Xuechen,LENG Chunxiang,FENG Xiangzhao,ZOU Ji,MA Shan. Risk Analysis of Flood Disaster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2008, 26(2): 61-66 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xuechen LENG Chunxiang FENG Xiangzhao ZOU Ji MA Shan |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the intensity characteristics of flood disaster are defined by the flood indices for the area in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the extreme precipitation events in this area are studied by Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the flood disasters occur frequently, and damage losses are sever, and the risk of extreme precipitation events is great. At the same time, the close relationship between the flood disasters and the related losses is analyzed, and it is shown that one must pay great attention to studies on flood disaster or meteorological disaster, to ensure sustainable social and economical development in this area. |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster strength characteristics probability risk disaster situation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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