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长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水风险分析
引用本文:李国芳,章志强.长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水风险分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1999,27(2):22-27.
作者姓名:李国芳  章志强
作者单位:河海大学水文水资源及环境学院
摘    要:长江南京段洪水位存在明显上升的趋势,为确保新水情下防洪堤的安全,首先分析了引起该河段水位上升的原因,然后按3种方案研究了今后长江南京段出现不同水位的风险度,研究结果表明,长江南京段水位突破历史最高值10.22m的重现期为27年,100年一遇的设计洪水位达10.8m左右。

关 键 词:水位  设计洪水位  风险  防洪堤
修稿时间:19971215

Risk Analysis of Design Flood Stage of Nanjing Section of Yangtze River Flood Protecting Embankment
Li Guofang,Huang Zhenping.Risk Analysis of Design Flood Stage of Nanjing Section of Yangtze River Flood Protecting Embankment[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),1999,27(2):22-27.
Authors:Li Guofang  Huang Zhenping
Abstract:The flood stage of the Yangtze River at Nanjing tends to rise in the past decades.For the sagety of the flood protecting embankment, it is necessary to recalculate its design flood stage.The causes of flood stage rise are analysed,and the risk for different stages is calculated with three schemes.Results show that the return period of the highest stage of 10.22 metres observed at the Xiaguan gauge station is 27 years,and the design flood stage corresponding to the return period of 100 years is about 10.8 metres.
Keywords:stage  design  flood  stage  risk  
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