鄂尔多斯盆地致密油体积压裂水平井产量预测

目前常用的水平井产量预测数值模拟方法和理论解析方法都难以解决致密油储层横向非均质变化大和人工裂缝发育程度描述难的问题。为解决以上问题，基于测井解释资料和体积压裂施工参数，从地质和工程两个方面对致密油水平井产量进行分析和效果评价，并采用灰色关联分析法，将水平段地质参数（标准录井气测全烃值、渗透率、脆性指数）、油层包络面面积、储层横向非均质系数作为影响储层含油性、渗透性、可压性和非均质性的敏感性参数；将施工参数的单井总入地液量作为产量的工程敏感性参数。通过拟合回归，建立对数预测模型对致密油水平井产量进行预测，达到降低致密油规模开发中的投资风险，提高产建效益的目的。应用该方法对合水长7致密油区块6口水平井进行产量预测，预测值与实际值平均相对误差仅为8.0%，效果较好。

Production Prediction for the Volume-Fracturing Horizontal Wells of a Tight Oil Reservoir in the Ordos Basin

The methods currently available for horizontal-well production prediction, whether by numerical simulation or theoretical analysis, are not appropriate for tight oil reservoirs because of their large heterogeneous variations, difficulties in describing their artificial fracture development, etc. To resolve these issues, the production of the horizontal wells of a tight oil reservoir was analyzed from geological and engineering perspectives on the basis of interpreting log data and volume fracturing parameters. The analysis was conducted using the geological parameters of the horizontal section (total hydrocarbon value obtained through standard mud logging, permeability, and brittleness index) as well as the enveloping surface area and lateral heterogeneity index of the oil reservoir as the sensitivity parameters of oil content, permeability, compressibility, and heterogeneity of the oil reservoir. In addition, the quantity of fluid injected into a single well was used as the sensitivity parameter of the well production through gray correlation analysis. The effectiveness of this analysis was then assessed. A fitted-regression-based log model was developed for predicting the production of the horizontal wells of the tight oil reservoir, thereby helping to mitigate the investment risk of large-scale tight oil reservoir development and increasing production efficiency. The method was then applied to six horizontal wells of the tight oil reservoir located in the Ordos Basin. The difference between the predicted and actual production was only 8.0%, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of the method.