集成PHAST-Visual Studio的岩溶区燃气管道灾害后果定量分析及应用

为科学评估岩溶区燃气管道灾害的后果影响程度，基于管道失效特征确定喷射火和蒸气云爆炸两种典型后果模式，研判适用于岩溶区燃气管道灾害的热辐射和冲击波超压危害准则，从危害面积、伤亡人数、经济损失、环境破坏四个维度提出岩溶区燃气管道灾害后果严重程度的评估模型体系，并结合Visual Studio平台开发“岩溶区燃气管道灾害后果分析软件”。立足岩溶区实际工程案例，结合区域经济社会发展、岩溶自然地质以及燃气管道工程特征，基于PHAST软件仿真分析灾害后果的影响范围，结合危害准则对区内人员、物体提出针对性灾害风险管控措施，并通过引入政府、行业、企业等颁布的标准条例，量化得出灾害后果的影响程度。研究结果表明：提出的PHAST-Visual Studio集成方法能够弥补以往研究的评估主观性问题，将社会科学思想带入工程风险评价研究，并通过计算机软件编程提高灾害后果分析效率，从而有助于显著控制岩溶区燃气管道灾害后果水平。

Quantitative Analysis of Gas Pipeline Disaster Consequence in Karst Area Based on Phast-Visual Studio Integrated Method and Its Application

In order to scientifically evaluate the impact of gas pipeline disasters in karst area, two typical consequence modes of jet fire and vapor cloud explosion are determined based on pipeline failure characteristics, and the hazard criteria of thermal radiation and shock wave overpressure applicable to gas pipeline disasters in karst area are selected. The evaluation model system for the severity of gas pipeline disaster consequences in karst areas is proposed from the four dimensions of hazard area, casualties, economic loss and environmental damage, and the software for analysis of gas pipeline disaster consequences in karst area is developed based on Visual Studio platform. Based on the actual engineering case in karst area, combined with the regional economic and social development, karst natural geology and gas pipeline engineering characteristics, the impact scope of disaster consequences is simulated and analyzed based on PHAST software. Targeted disaster risk control measures are proposed for personnel and objects in the affected area based on hazard criteria. By introducing relevant standards and regulations issued by the government, industry and enterprises, the impact degree of disaster consequences are quantified. The research results show that: the PHAST-Visual Studio integration method proposed can make up for the subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of previous studies, bring social science ideas into the engineering risk assessment research, and improve the efficiency of disaster consequence analysis through computer software programming, which is helpful to significantly reduce the level of disaster consequences of gas pipelines in karst area.