| 应用时间序列分析法进行棉红铃虫中长期数值预报的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪笃栋,叶正襄,万胜印,陈征.应用时间序列分析法进行棉红铃虫中长期数值预报的研究[J].江西科学,1988(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪笃栋 叶正襄 万胜印 陈征 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省农科院植保所
(汪笃栋，叶正襄)，彭泽县农牧业局
(万胜印)，江西省计算中心(陈征) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以时间序列分析法组建棉红铃虫数值预报模型,将棉红铃虫种群数量变动的时间序列分解为周期项和随机项,采用逐步回归周期分析和平稳随机序列分析方法分别提取其周期项和随机项,经迭加后应用于中长期数值预报,经初步验证,效果尚好。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉红铃虫 数值预报 时间序列分析法 |
STUDIES ON APPLYING THE TIME SERIES ANALYSES AS A MEANS FOR MODERATELY LONG TERM PREDICTION OF PINK BOLLWORM POPULATION |
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| Wang Dudong and Ye Zhengxiang.STUDIES ON APPLYING THE TIME SERIES ANALYSES AS A MEANS FOR MODERATELY LONG TERM PREDICTION OF PINK BOLLWORM POPULATION[J].Jiangxi Science,1988(4). |
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| Authors: | Wang Dudong and Ye Zhengxiang |
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| Abstract: | This paper reports an attempt to use time series analyses as a tool for moderately long term prediction of pink bollworm population by dividing the time series of population fluctuations of the insect into periodic term and random term. The two terms are estimated by the methods of stepwise regressive periodic analyses and stationary stochastes sequence respectively. Prediction is then made by adding up the two terms together. A test shows that the prediction thus derived is qualified. |
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| Keywords: | Pink bollworm Population prediction Time series analyses |
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