一次强霜冻成功预报及成因分析

成县地处甘肃陇南徽成盆地西端,气候资源优越,适宜核桃生长,生态经济效益显著.但晚霜冻害仍是影响其生长发育的主要气象灾害之一,对晚霜冻害的成因分析和预报技术研究尤为必要.霜冻形成的背景:一是大环流形势的强弱和持续时间、冷空气侵入路径,这是决定冷空气强弱的主要因子;二是地面气象要素的应对,地面冷锋过境、霜冻线移动速度、降水过程、地面强烈辐射造成的辐射冷却等,这些综合条件成为霜冻加强的响应因素.冬春气候异常和作物物候期的异常,加重了晚霜危害的程度.对晚霜形成的环流形势和气候背景的分析研究,有助于提高较强晚霜冻预报的准确性,从而提高预防晚霜冻害的时效性,确保核桃产业可持续发展.

Successful Forecast and Causative Analysis of a Heavy Frost

Located in the west the growth of walnuts, which co to the area. Frosts, however, are of Huicheng basin, Longnan, Gansu, Chengxian is climat vers an area of 26670 hectares and brings ecological and one of the main meteorological disasters that affect the ically suitable for economic benefits growth and har vests of walnuts, so it is essential to investigate contributing factors and accurate forecast of frosts. The formation of frosts is mainly due to two main aspects of the local weather. One is the intensity and duration of large circulation of air and the path of cold air,which is the main factor determining the strength of cold air. The other is the ground meteorological elements,including coping,ground cold fronts,frost line speed, precipitation, radiation cooling caused by ground radiation, which are the response factors of frost strength- ening. In addition, abnormal conditions in winter and spring and crop phenology aggravate damage by frosts. Therefore, the causative analysis of frosts helps improve the accuracy of forecasting severe frosts and the effectiveness of frost prevention, ensuring the sustainable development of the walnut industry in the area.