浅析人民币升值对我国输美纺织品价格的影响

运用协整及误差修正模型研究了2005年7月人民币汇率改革前后,人民币兑美元升值对我国输美纺织品价格的影响。研究结果表明,汇改前人民币兑美元汇率波动对我国输美纺织品价格的影响在统计上不显著。而2005年7月汇改以后,人民币兑美元升值节奏加快,我国输美纺织品价格对人民币汇率波动趋于敏感,人民币升值显著提高了我国输美纺织品当地市场价格。进而本文指出,加快纺织产业结构升级,提高纺织品内在价值将是我国纺织出口企业消化人民币升值不利影响的必然选择。

On the impacts on the Prices of Export America Textile Products of RMB Appreciation

Through integration and error correction model(ECM),this paper has empirically analyzed the pass-through effects of variation of RMB to China’s import price index by using data from Jan.of 1995 to Feb.of 2009.The results indicated that pass-through effects were not so evident before the RMB exchange rate reform which took place in Jan.of 2005,but after the government elevated the variation elasticity of RMB exchange rates,the path-through effects increased dramatically.Finally,we suggested that the government authorities should take effective measures to stimulate the upgrading of textile industry and alleviate the passive effects from appreciation of RMB exchange rate too swiftly.