The novel H1N1 Influenza A global airline transmission and early warning without travel containments |
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Authors: | ChaoYi Chang ChunXiang Cao Qiao Wang Yu Chen ZhiDong Cao Hao Zhang Lei Dong Jian Zhao Min Xu MengXu Gao ShaoBo Zhong QiSheng He JinFeng Wang XiaoWen Li |
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Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101, China 6. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China 3. Satellite Environment Center, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing, 100012, China 5. Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China 4. Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China 2. The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
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Abstract: | A novel influenza A (H1N1) has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading. |
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Keywords: | H1N1 influenza A airline transmission early warning basic reproductive number containment strategies |
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