| 基于级比序列的离散GM(1,1)模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨保华,方志耕,张可.基于级比序列的离散GM(1,1)模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(4):715-718. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨保华 方志耕 张可 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院， 江苏 南京 210016； 2. 徐州师范大学管理学院， 江苏 徐州 221009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(90924022,70971064,70901041,71171113);教育部人文社科基金(12YJC630262)资助课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对离散GM(1,1)模型的模拟序列未能反映出原始数据序列的级比动态变化这一问题，通过对原始数据序列的级比序列进行建模，建立基于级比序列的级比离散GM(1,1)预测模型。该模型较好地保留了原始序列级比的动态性，结合原始序列与级比序列的关系，获得原始序列的模拟值。数值计算结果表明，基于级比序列的离散GM(1,1)预测模型，无论在相对误差还是平均相对误差的变动幅度方面，都优于离散GM(1,1)模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 级比序列 离散GM(1 1)模型 数值计算 相对模拟误差 |
Discrete GM(1,1) model based on sequence of stepwise ratio |
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| YANG Bao-hua
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FANG Zhi-geng
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ZHANG Ke.Discrete GM(1,1) model based on sequence of stepwise ratio[J].System Engineering and Electronics,2012,34(4):715-718. |
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| Authors: | YANG Bao-hua FANG Zhi-geng ZHANG Ke |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016,China； 2. School of Management, Xuzhou Normal University, Xuzhou 221009, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the problem that the discrete GM(1,1) simulation sequence does not reflect the dynamic change of the stepwise ratio of original data sequence,through analysing the sequence of stepwise ratio of original data sequence,a new discrete GM(1,1) model is established based on the sequence of the stepwise ratio.Then by using the relationship between original sequence and stepwise ratio,the simulated sequence can be gotten,and the new model reflects the dynamics of stepwise ratio better than the old model.The numerical results show that the new discrete GM(1,1) is better than the discrete GM(1,1) model,in terms of relative error and average relative error of the extent of the changes. |
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| Keywords: | sequence of stepwise ratio discrete GM(1 1) model numerical calculation relative simlation error |
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