| Towards Disaggregate Dynamic Travel Forecasting Models |
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| 作者姓名： | Moshe Ben-Akiva Jon Bottom Song Gao Haris N. Koutsopoulos Yang Wen |
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| 作者单位： | Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue Room 1-181 Cambridge MA 02139 USA，CRA International 200 Clarendon Street T-33 Boston MA 02116 USA，Northeastern University 437 Snell Engineering Center Boston MA 02115 USA |
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| 基金项目： | The authors are indebted to Giulio Cantarella and André de Palma for their insightful and useful comments and suggestions. |
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| 摘 要： | The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed framework consists of disaggregate activity-based representation of travel choices of individual motorists on the demand side integrated with disaggregate dynamic modeling of network performance, through vehicle-based traffic simulation models on the supply side. The demand model generates individual members of the population and assigns to them socioeconomic characteristics. The generated motorists maintain these characteristics when they are loaded on the network by the supply model. In an equilibrium setting, the framework lends itself to a fixed-point formulation to represent and resolve demand-supply interactions. The paper discusses some of the remaining development challenges and presents an example of an existing travel forecasting model system that incorporates many of the proposed elements.
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游 预测模型 非集计模型 动态模型 交通模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 13 December 2006 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-13 |
Towards Disaggregate Dynamic Travel Forecasting Models |
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| Moshe Ben-Akiva Jon Bottom Song Gao Haris N. Koutsopoulos Yang Wen.Towards Disaggregate Dynamic Travel Forecasting Models[J].Tsinghua Science and Technology,2007,12(2):115-130. |
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| Authors: | Moshe Ben-Akiva Jon Bottom Song Gao Haris N Koutsopoulos Yang Wen |
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| Institution: | 1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room 1-181, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; 2. CRA International, 200 Clarendon Street T-33, Boston, MA 02116, USA; 3. Caliper Corporation, 1172 Beacon Street, Newton, MA 02461, USA; 4. Northeastern University, 437 Snell Engineering Center, Boston, MA 02115, USA |
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| Abstract: | The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed framework consists of disaggregate activity-based representation of travel choices of individual motorists on the demand side integrated with disaggregate dynamic modeling of network performance, through vehicle-based traffic simulation models on the supply side. The demand model generates individual members of the population and assigns to them socioeconomic characteristics. The generated motorists maintain these characteristics when they are loaded on the network by the supply model. In an equilibrium setting, the framework lends itself to a fixed-point formulation to represent and resolve demand-supply interactions. The paper discusses some of the remaining development challenges and presents an example of an existing travel forecasting model system that incorporates many of the proposed elements. |
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| Keywords: | disaggregate dynamic travel forecasting |
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