太湖流域超标特大洪水风险预警系统建设及应用

为做好超标洪水调度、保障流域防洪安全，开发建设了由基于水文水动力学耦合的超警超保风险区域预警模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型共同组成的超标特大洪水风险预警系统，该系统在太湖流域预报调度一体化系统中通过智能交互方式进行模型与系统的紧密集成，实现了预报调度成果的可视化。基于水利一张图的超警超保与淹涝动态展示，实现了预报产品从点到面、从常规预报到影响预测的突破，以及洪水风险由静态评估向实时快速动态分析的转变。应用结果表明：系统在2020年太湖流域性大洪水中累计发布超警超保风险提示39期、洪水淹涝风险评估4期，预测结果与实际基本一致，为科学调度防御超标洪水提供了技术支撑，避免了江苏省苏州市3万多的人员转移，有力保障了太湖流域防洪安全。

Risk warning system construction and application under excessive extreme flood

In order to dispatch the excessive extreme flood and ensure the flood control safety, the early warning model for water areas exceeding the alarming and guaranteed level based on the coupled hydrology and hydrodynamic models, and the rapid assessment model of flood risk based on the hydrological method. The models and the system were intelligently interacted in the forecasting and dispatching integration system of the Taihu Lake Basin, to realize the visualization of forecasting and scheduling results. Based on the National Water One Map System, the dynamic demonstration of water exceeding the alarming and guaranteed level, with the risk assessments of flood inundation, achieved the product breakthroughs from station forecasting to area prediction, from conventional forecasting to impacting prediction, as well as the flood risk from static evaluation to real time dynamic assessment. The system has been applied in resisting the 2020 major flood in the Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed that 39 risk reminders of water exceeding the alarming and guaranteed level, as well as 4 risk assessments of flood inundation, were released by the Bureau of Hydrology Information Center of Taihu Lake Basin Authority. The forecasting results were consistent with the observation, provided technical support for the dispatching, and avoided more than 30 thousand people evacuation in Suzhou city of Jiangsu Province, which guaranted the safety of flood control in the Taihu Lake Basin.