| 中国人均GDP的ARIMA模型分析与预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张毅. 中国人均GDP的ARIMA模型分析与预测[J]. 甘肃联合大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 21(1): 32-33 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张毅 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 长江大学,信息与数学学院,湖北,荆州,434023 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 人均GDP是反映一个国家综合实力的重要经济指标,由于经济波动的影响和随机因素的干扰,一般单变量模型模拟的效果较差,利用ARIMA(1,1,2)模型建模,可用过去人均GDP的值和过去误差来预测未来人均GDP的走势,有较强的预测能力,从而为经济政策的调整和制定提供参考.
|
| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 人均GDP ML估计 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-691X（2007）01-0032-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-11-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-01 |
ARIMA Model Analysis and Prediction of China''''s Per Capita GDP |
| |
| ZHANG Yi. ARIMA Model Analysis and Prediction of China''''s Per Capita GDP[J]. Journal of Gansu Lianhe University :Natural Sciences, 2007, 21(1): 32-33 |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Yi |
| |
| Abstract: | Per capita GDP is important economic index reflecting a nation's overall strength.Generally,the effect of simulation of simple variable model is poor because of the influence of economic flunctuation and the interference of random elements.Using ARIM(1,1,2) Model to set up a model can predict future trend of per capita GDP by using the value of past per capita GDP and its error.And it has stronger prediction ability,thus providing reference for the adjustment and make of economic policies. |
| |
| Keywords: | ARIMA model per capita GDP ML estimating |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
