| 基于需求预测的分销系统成本模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王迎军,高峻峻,郭亚军.基于需求预测的分销系统成本模型[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(1):97-101. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王迎军 高峻峻 郭亚军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 上海大学悉尼工商学院,上海,201800
2. 东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁,沈阳,110004 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(7050202070472032)，上海市教委项目(05A498) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 研究一类分销系统的成本模型,在不规则的需求模式下,将一类模糊系统模型引入需求预测领域,然后,在需求预测的基础上给出一段时间内中心仓库和各个零售商的成本模型.最后,通过一个算例说明模糊系统模型与传统的统计模型在预测精度、分销系统及其成员的总成本和服务水平方面的差异.运算结果表明,在研究基于需求预测的分销系统成本优化问题时,模糊系统模型更优于统计模型.
|
| 关 键 词： | 需求预测 成本模型 供应链管理 模糊系统 查表法 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5781（2006）01-0097-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-04-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-04-222004-09-20 |
Cost models for distribution systems based on demand forecast |
| |
| WANG Ying-jun,GAO Jun-jun,GUO Ya-jun.Cost models for distribution systems based on demand forecast[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2006,21(1):97-101. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Ying-jun GAO Jun-jun GUO Ya-jun |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Sydney Institute of Language and Commerce, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201800, China; 2. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The cost models for a class of distribution systems are considered in this paper.A fuzzy system model is applied to demand forecast under irregular demand mode.Then,based on demand forecast,cost models are presented for the center warehouse and the retailers.Finally,a simple numerical example is given to illustrate the differences in forecast accuracy and total costs as well as service levels in distribution system between the fuzzy system model and the traditional statistical model.The computational results show that fuzzy system models are better than statistical models in demand forecast based cost analysis for distribution system. |
| |
| Keywords: | demand forecast cost models supply chain management fuzzy systems table look-up scheme |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
