基于网络流与危险与可操作性分析的天然气站场系统可靠性

为了更全面、准确地分析天然气站场的系统整体可靠性，提出采用跨领域的网络流理论来分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性，并对网络流理论做了归纳创新与适应性分析，通过最小路集与不交化算法计算出站场系统在正常工艺状态下的失效概率，然后创新性地提出基于危险与可操作性分析(hazard and operability analysis, HAZOP)确定站场系统在工艺参数偏差状态下的失效概率，分析偏差状态对于站场系统可靠性的影响，将其与正常工艺状态下的站场系统失效概率对比，从而更加全面地分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性。结果表明：所提出的网络流分步法比网络流整体法分析站场系统的可靠性适应性更强，网络流分步法不存在必要通路不在最小路集内的问题，既能保证连通性又能保证满足工艺要求；正常工艺状态下该站的系统失效概率为4.986 9×10^-2,工艺参数偏差状态下该站的系统失效概率为5.803 6×10^-2,较正常工艺状态增大16.38%,两种状态下各子系统的失效概率数量级没有改变，大小排序也没有改变，因此该工艺参数偏差状态下建议各子系统排序不变，但对于各子系统中的设备需...

Reliability research of natural gas station based on network flow and HAZOP analysis

In order to analyze the overall reliability of the natural gas station system more comprehensively and accurately, a cross-domain network flow theory is proposed to analyze the overall reliability of the natural gas station system. The network flow theory is summarized, innovated and adaptively analyzed, and the failure probability of the outbound yard system under normal process conditions is calculated by the minimum path set analysis and the disjoint algorithm. Then, an innovative method ba sed on HAZOP analysis is proposed to determine the failure probability of the station system in the state of process parameter deviation. The impact of deviation status on the reliability of the station system is analyzed and compared with the failure probability of the station system under normal process conditions, so as to analyze the overall reliability of the natural gas station system more comprehensively. The results show that the proposed network flow step-by-step method is more adaptable than the network flow overall method to analyze the reliability of the station system. meet process requirements. The failure probability of the station yard system in the normal process state is 4.9869×10-2, and the failure probability of the station yard system in the process parameter deviation state is 5.803 6×10-2, which is 16.38% higher than that in the normal process state. The order of magnitude of the failure probability of each subsystem in the two states does not change, and the size order does not change. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the order of each subsystem in the state of process parameter deviation. However, the equipment in each subsystem needs to be adjusted according to the degree of increase of their respective failure probability, which has certain guiding significance for the actual production operation and safe operation management of natural gas stations.