温度交变条件下固体推进剂贮存寿命评估

针对固体推进剂在温度交替变化下贮存寿命评估难的问题，提出一种基于修正Coffin-Manson模型的寿命评估方法. 首先，利用固体推进剂在多个加速应力水平下的温度循环加速退化数据，采用线性回归方法获得性能退化曲线； 然后，结合失效阈值确定不同加速应力水平下的伪寿命；最后，采用多元回归方法确定加速模型—修正Coffin-Manson模型，进而外推正常条件下固体推进剂贮存寿命. 采用本方法评估某固体推进剂在实际应力水平下的贮存寿命为16.7 a，与实际贮存寿命相比误差约为7.22%，表明该方法具有有效性和可行性，可以推广到其他固体推进剂或弹药在温度交替变化环境下的贮存寿命评估. 

Storage Life Evaluation of Solid Propellant Under Alternating Temperature Conditions

A life evaluation method based on modified Coffin-Manson model was proposed for the solid propellant stored in alternating temperature environments for a long time. Firstly, based on the temperature cycling acceleration degradation test data, the performance degradation curve of a solid propellant at different accelerated stress levels was obtained by the linear regression method. Then, combined with the failure threshold, the pseudo life at different acceleration stress levels was calculated according to the performance degradation model at the corresponding acceleration stress level. Finally, a multiple regression method was used to determine the acceleration model—modified Coffin-Manson model, which can be used to extrapolate the storage life of a solid propellant stored at room temperature. The storage life of a solid propellant is 16.7 years at room temperature by this new method. Compared with the actual storage life, the error is about 7.22%. The result indicates that this method is effective and feasible and can be applied to evaluate the storage life of other solid propellants or ammunition stored in an alternating temperature environment for a long time.