| 数值预报产品的误差订正方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张兰慧,尚可政,程一帆,王式功.数值预报产品的误差订正方法[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2011(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张兰慧 尚可政 程一帆 王式功 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B03,2009BAC53B02) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于统计学的数值预报产品误差订正的新方法,该方法根据模式前几个预报时次的误差计算出后面预报时次的误差,通过订正进一步提高了数值预报产品的精度,从而使其能够在日常天气预报中起到更好的作用.为了验证该方法的订正效果,设计了基于T213数值预报产品的订正方案并进行了试验.结果表明,订正方案稳定可靠,订正效果显著,明显减小了各时次的预报误差.另外,该订正方法计算量小,对计算机设备要求不高,便于在各级气象台站推广使用.
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报产品 误差订正方法 逐步回归 |
Study on the correction of numerical prediction products |
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| ZHANG Lan-hui,SHANG Ke-zheng,CHENG Yi-fan,WANG Shi-gong Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change , Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou ,China.Study on the correction of numerical prediction products[J].Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Science),2011(3). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lan-hui SHANG Ke-zheng CHENG Yi-fan WANG Shi-gong Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province School of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Lan-hui,SHANG Ke-zheng,CHENG Yi-fan,WANG Shi-gong Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China |
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| Abstract: | A new error-correction method was proposed based on relevant statistics,which uses errors of the first few forecast lengths to correct errors of the following forecast lengths.A correction scheme of T213 products was designed and its corresponding experiments carried out to test the proposed method.The experiment results show that the correction scheme is reliable and effective.Because of smaller calculation quantity,the method can be conveniently applied in meteorological departments. |
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| Keywords: | numerical prediction product error-correction method stepwise regression |
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