三峡库区森林生态经济系统的现状预警分析

从系统序化的观点出发，提出了森林生态经济系统的模型、特征以及预警意义；利用主成分分析方法确定系统预警的主要指标，它们分别是库区农业人口、森林覆盖率、公益林经济补偿、人均消费、森林保护面积、林地侵蚀模数、库区平均侵蚀模数和退化面积比；结合生态足迹模型、汽态扩散方程、扩展线性支出系统模型进行模拟，确定各指标的警戒线，做出现状预警评价，并探索了系统解除警戒以及走可持续发展之路的对策．

Actual Warning of Forest Ecological Economic System for Three-Gorge Reservoir Area

The model and the character of forest ecological economic system were advanced, and the significance of system warning was analyzed from a view of systematic ordering. The main indexes, which were farming population, forest coverage, public benefit forest compensate, average consumption, forest-protecting area, forest land erosion modulus, mean erosion modulus and degenerating area proportion, were determined. By the means of Ecological Footprint Model, Vapor Diffusion Equation and Expanding Linear Expenditure Systemic Model, the warning line of each index were ascertained, and actual warning was achieved, key countermeasures to release from the warning were discussed.