| Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression |
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| 引用本文： | XU Jing YANG Chi ZHANG Guoping. Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression[J]. 武汉大学学报:自然科学英文版, 2007, 12(4): 638-644. DOI: 10.1007/s11859-006-0313-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | XU Jing YANG Chi ZHANG Guoping |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China [2]National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China [3]College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by the New Technology Generalization Project of China Meteorological Administration （CMATG2004M05） |
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| 摘 要： | Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identified as ＂likely enough to release warning messages＂. The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 逻辑回归 信息模式 降雨 空间分析 气象预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-1202（2007）04-0638-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-25 |
Regional integrated meteorological forecasting and warning model for geological hazards based on logistic regression |
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| Xu Jing,Yang Chi,Zhang Guoping. Regional integrated meteorological forecasting and warning model for geological hazards based on logistic regression[J]. Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences, 2007, 12(4): 638-644. DOI: 10.1007/s11859-006-0313-9 |
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| Authors: | Xu Jing Yang Chi Zhang Guoping |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China;(2) National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China;(3) College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China |
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| Abstract: | Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Fur-ther combining the dynamic rainfall observations,Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences,upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological haz-ards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input,forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid,and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identi-fied as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system,thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards. |
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| Keywords: | geological hazard information model Logistic regression rainfall spatial analysis |
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