城镇居民用电直接回弹效应分析 ——考虑局部和全局空间溢出效应

为探究直接回弹效应的空间溢出效应与区域差异，基于空间计量方法，改进直接回弹效应测算模型，并利用中国城镇居民电力消费空间面板数据进行实证分析.研究发现，中国城镇居民用电直接回弹效应存在显著的空间溢出效应，忽略空间溢出效应会混淆本地区和相邻地区能效提高对本地区城镇居民电力消费的影响；局部空间溢出效应与全局空间溢出效应迥异，为充分发挥能效政策潜力，政府应关注能效政策的作用范围；城镇居民用电直接回弹效应及其空间溢出效应在东、中、西部地区差异较小，在区域层面具有稳健性.

Analysis on the Direct Rebound Effect of Urban Residents′ Electricity Consumption—Considering Local and Global Spatial Spillover Effects

In order to explore the spatial spillover effect and regional differences of direct rebound effect， the measurement model of direct rebound effect has been improved based on the spatial measurement method， and the empirical analysis has been conducted on the basis of spatial panel data of Chinese urban residents’ electricity consumption. It is found that there is a significant spatial spillover effect in the direct rebound effect. Ignoring the spatial spillover effect will confuse the impact of energy efficiency improvement in urban residents’ power consumption on local and neighboring regions. Owing to the difference between the local and global spillover effect， the government should pay much attention to the scope of the energy efficiency policy to reach its full potential. The direct rebound effect and spatial spillover effect of urban residents’ electricity have few differences in the eastern， central and western regions， and they are steady at the regional level.