从广义“Monty Hall问题”谈概率统计中的计算机仿真

分析了广义＂Monty Hall问题＂,即有a辆车和b只羊的Monty Hall问题,得到了在改变第一次的选择和不改变第一次的选择两种不同条件下赢得汽车的概率;同时利用Matlab进行了计算机仿真。理论计算和计算机仿真分析都表明改变第一次的选择更可能赢得汽车,并得到了概率增加值的理论公式。该公式表明在广义＂Monty Hall问题＂中,当只有一辆汽车和两只羊时,改变第一次的选择带来的概率增加值最大,这就解释了为什么现实生活中大量的类似于＂Monty Hall问题＂的节目或游戏往往只有三个选项,而其中只有一个是奖品。

Theoretical Solution and Computer Simulation of the General Monty Hall Problem

The general Monty Hall problem with a cars and b sheep has been analyzed,and the probabilities of gaining the car under the conditions that the player changes his or her first choice or not have been computed.Computer simulation has been done and the results support the theoretical solutions well.Both the theoretical analysis and the computer simulation show that if the player changes his or her first choice then the probability of gaining the car will increase.The result also tell us that we have the maxim...