三江平原粮食生产与沼泽湿地协调发展水平动态分析与评价

为了寻求三江平原农作物播种面积和沼泽湿地面积两者间的合理比例，使之既能保证粮食生产，又能维持沼泽湿地的重要功能，有必要对三江平原粮食生产与沼泽湿地协调发展水平进行动态分析与评价。在获取过去50多年三江平原沼泽湿地面积和农作物播种面积数据的基础上，通过选取表征粮食生产效益和沼泽湿地效益的评价指标，应用模糊数学中的隶属度函数对评价指标进行量化，建立协调发展水平评价模型，对两者协调发展程度进行了动态分析与评价。评价结果显示，20世纪60年代中期的农业生产和沼泽湿地环境是比较协调的。该时期三江平原农作物播种面积为158万hm^2，沼泽湿地面积为282万hm^2。此结果可以作为三江平原沼泽湿地恢复程度的一个参考标准。按高产水平计算，三江平原可提供111077t粮食，而三江平原的生物种类可以恢复到建国初期的95％。图8，参25。

Dynamic Analysis and Evaluation of the Coordinated Development Level between Grain Production and Marsh Wetland Protection in Sanjiang Plain

Sanjiang Plain as one of important commodity grain production bases in China, contributes a lot to the food security of the country. With constant enlargement of crop planting area in the Sanjiang Plain, the marsh wetland area decreased rapidly, and this induced the deterioration of ecological environment. Nowadays, we emphasize sustainable development.The protection of marsh wetland is very important. Therefore, to guarantee suitable grain production level and maintain the essential function of marsh wetland in Sanjiang Plain, it is necessary to find a coordinated point between crop planting area and marsh wetland area. Based on the past fifty-odd years＇ data of marsh wetland area and crop planting area in the Sanjiang Plain, this paper firstly chose the evaluation index which represented grain production benefit and marsh wetland benefit, respectively, then quantified the evaluation index by the method of membership function of fuzzy mathematics. Based on those, this paper established coordinated development level evaluation model which could be used for a dynamic analysis and evaluation for the coordinated development degree of grain production benefit and marsh wetland benefit. The evaluation result showed that, in the 60＇s of the 20th century, the agricultural production and marsh wetland environment was coordinated. In 1966, coordinated development level value reached maximum 0.610,and the crop planting area was 158 million hectares and the marsh wetland area was 282 million hectares.This result can be used as a reference standard for the recovery degree of marsh wetland in the Sanjiang Plain. According to the high production level, Sanjiang Plain can provide 1 106 million tons of grain,but the biological species can be recovered to 95% of the early years of new China.