2012年11月福建省多暴雨过程成因分析

为分析2012年11月福建省降水异常偏多的现象,利用统计学和天气学的分析方法，对11月的降水气候特征和下旬3场暴雨的环流形势、影响系统及水汽输送特征进行了分析。整个11月，200 hPa西风急流偏强，在福建省上空有气流的辐散；500 hPa乌拉尔山脊偏强，贝加尔湖槽偏深，有利于冷空气南下；850 hPa为较强西南急流。下旬3场暴雨期间，500 hPa南支槽位于105°～110°E，副高强度偏强；中低层700，850 hPa有切变线和西南急流，850 hPa比湿大于8 g/kg。结果表明，稳定的环流形势、频繁出现的天气系统以及充沛的水汽条件是发生多暴雨现象的主要原因。

Fujian province rainstorm cause analysis in November 2012

November 2012 saw above normal precipitation in Fujian Province. Three rare heavy rainstorms occurred during the fall. This paper used statistical and synoptic methods to analyze the characteristics and effects of the climate system of precipitation of Fujian in November, focused on the analysis of the situation and the impact of the circulation system and the atmospheric water vapor transport characteristics of torrential rains in the ten days last of the month during the three storms, identified the precipitation anomaly factor in Fujian Province in November 2012, and summed up the forecast experience of autumn heavy rain in Fujian Province. The results show that 200 hPa South Asian high ridge line at latitude 25 degrees and 500 hPa Ural ridge enhancement, deepening trough of Lake Baikal, were favorable to the westward extension of the range of 588 to expand. 850 hPa was southwest wind in Fujian Province in November 2012.Preliminary results show autumn storm conceptual mode that ground cold air southward, 500 hPa southern branch trough 105 to 110 degrees east longitude, subtropical high was stronger. It had shear line and Southwest rapids in the lower 700 hPa and 850 hPa. Specific humidity of 850 hPa was greater than 8 g/kg. The stable circulation patterns, and frequent weather systems, coupled with abundant moisture were the main reasons for a lot of rainstorms in November 2012.