多智能体仿真的装配式项目风险对策选择

从动态、系统的角度探究装配式建筑项目的风险对策选择问题.梳理装配式建筑项目中主要的风险问题,并建立基于多智能体仿真(MAS)技术的风险控制机制.采用MAS技术构建风险对策选择模型,建立了Agent间的交互关系及参数设置.选取实际案例中的风险对策代入模型,仿真结果验证了模型的可行性.研究结果表明:该模型从动态的角度考虑装配式建筑项目的风险,更加贴合实际情境,且能够准确地衡量不同风险对策的实施对项目目标的影响,有利于合理选择风险对策.

Multi-Agent Simulation Based on Selection of Risk Strategy for Prefabricated Construction Projects

The selection of risk strategies for prefabricated construction projects was explored from dynamic and systematic perspectives. Through reviewing major risks in prefabricated construction projects, multi-agent simulation(MAS)based on risk control mechanism was designed. The model of selecting risk strategies was established, including the interaction relationship between agents, and the parameters. The feasibility of model was verified by inputting risk strategies in actual cases into the model. The simulation results show that the model can consider actual risks of prefabricated construction projects from dynamic perspectives, which is more suitable for actual situation. The model can accurately measure the impact of different risk strategies on project objectives, which is conducive to select risk strategies reasonably.