| 中国电力需求长期增长趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭建平. 中国电力需求长期增长趋势预测[J]. 科技情报开发与经济, 2012, 22(18): 112-114,132 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭建平 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省高校哲学社会研究基金项目“江苏农民工建立个人养老金计划的可行性分析与管理模式研究”(项目编号:09SJD910001) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于协整理论和指数增长模型,分析预测了中国电力需求长期增长趋势,基于协整研究的结果,指出电力需求和经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,考虑到数据在生成过程中的变化,采用1983—2005年子样本拟合指数增长模型预测电力需求,预测效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 协整理论 电力需求 经济增长 分析预测 |
Prediction of the Growth Trend of Long Term Power Demand of China |
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| GUO Jian-ping. Prediction of the Growth Trend of Long Term Power Demand of China[J]. Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy, 2012, 22(18): 112-114,132 |
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| Authors: | GUO Jian-ping |
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| Affiliation: | GUO Jian-ping |
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| Abstract: | Based on the co-integration theory and exponential growth model,this paper analyzes and predicts the growth trend of long term power demand of China.The co-integration analysis shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between power demand and economic growth,and considering the changes in the data generation process,the 1983-2005 sub-samples is fitted with exponential growth model to forecast the power demand and the predictive effect is good. |
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| Keywords: | co-integration theory power demand economic growth analysis and prediction |
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