组合预测模型在我国能源消费系统中的建构及应用

组合预测理论及建模技术对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性 .鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征 ,文章首先利用我国能源消费量的历史数据 ,分别采用灰色预测、神经网络及多元回归方法建立了我国能源消费系统的单项预测模型 .并对各单项模型的优缺点进行了比较分析 .其次 ,采用标准差法进行权重分配 ,建立了我国未来能源消费量的组合预测模型 .最后 ,应用该模型对我国未来 2 0年的能源消费量进行了预测 .结果表明 ,该模型可以作为我国未来能源消费量预测的有效工具 .

The Construction and Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Chinese Energy Consumption System

The theory of combination forecasting and the skill of modeling are practicable in complex economic system with uncompleted information. Because energy consumption system is of complexity and non-linearity, firstly, we respectively make use of grey forecasting, neural network and multiple regression to construct models depending on historical data of Chinese energy consumption, as well as analyze and compare the advantages with the disadvantages of these models. Secondly, we propose the combination forecasting model of energy consumption in future by using standard variance to allocate the weights. Finally, we apply this kind of model to forecast Chinese energy consumption in following 20 years. The result shows that we can take the model as an effective tool to predict Chinese future energy consumption.