二项分布Bayes鉴定试验次数的选择与分析

讨论了二项分布的可靠性Bayes鉴定试验方案问题。在试验样本量一定的条件下,充分利用验前信息弥补现场试验信息的不足,从平均后验风险角度制定了成败型系统可靠性鉴定试验的Bayes方案。密切结合工程试验,从生产和使用双方的实际风险的角度,研究分析了Bayes可靠性鉴定试验与评估的联系与差异。最后,与传统的鉴定试验方案进行了分析比较,明确了Bayes方法的使用范围,对于工程试验方案的选择具有实际的指导意义。

Analysis of test scheme for a Bayes plan of qualification Test in binomial case

A Bayes plan of reliability qualification test is discussed in combination with the results obtained from the actual tests.On the premise that the quantity of the test is ensured,a scheme of reliability acceptance test in binomial case is formulated by using prior information efficiently.In view of the meaning of sampling risk actually concerned by users and producers in acceptance test,the difference and connection between the Bayes reliability qualification and assessment are analysed.The outcome of the project instance is compared with the traditional method according to the plan of reliability acceptance tests,the range of Bayes method is clear and definite,it has active guidance meaning and applied value to the engineering practice.