基于系统动力学的生鲜农产品国际冷链物流运作风险控制研究——以云南省生鲜蔬菜国际冷链物流为例

以云南省生鲜蔬菜国际冷链物流为例,从系统的角度对国际冷链物流运作风险进行分析,找出主要风险因素,明确风险系统的内部结构及反馈机制,构建生鲜农产品国际冷链物流运作风险的系统动力学模型.模拟仿真结果显示:国际冷链物流运作前6天成本风险和时间风险较高.10天后品质风险较高;风险控制策略具有一定的滞后性,通常在2天以后才生效;当风险控制策略实施有效且风险控制成本占物流运作费用的比例在15％左右时,国际冷链物流运作绩效最高.降低风险的对策措施是:企业间加强协调合作,注重果蔬预冷环节;提前进行合理的风险评估,做好风险防治;综合考虑风险控制成本、运作风险、运作绩效三方面的均衡.

A System Dynamics-Based Study on the International Cold Chain Logistics Operational Risk Control of Fresh Agro Products: Take the International Cold Chain Logistics of Fresh Vegetables in Yunnan Province as an Example

This paper takes international cold chain logistics of fresh vegetables in Yunnan province as an example to analyze the logistics operation risk of cold chain from a system perspective.The study intends to find out the major risk factors,determine the internal structure and feedback mechanism of risk system,and build a system dynamics model of operation risk system on international cold chain logistics of fresh agro products.The result of analog simulation shows that:First,higher cost risks and time risks appear during the first 6/T days of logistics operation,and higher quality risks after 10/T days.Second,risk control strategy exhibit hysteresis effect,and it usually comes into effect after 2 days.Third,logistics operation performs best when the risk control strategy is effective and the risk control costs account for around 15％ of the logistics operation cost.Finally,based on the simulation results,the paper put forward several countermeasures to reduce risks.Namely,strengthening coordination and cooperation between enterprises and attaching importance to precooling process;adopting reasonable risk assessment in advance and taking effective risk prevention and control measures;and taking a comprehensive consideration of the overall balanced development among risk control cost,operation risk and operational performance.