| 地方税收收入预测的数学模型——以贵州省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 余杨,王时绘.地方税收收入预测的数学模型——以贵州省为例[J].湖北大学学报(自然科学版),2012,34(1):21-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余杨 王时绘 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北大学数学与计算机科学学院,湖北武汉,430062 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵阳地税风险管理数据建模(070-097491)项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立地方税收收入的3个单一模型,针对单一模型中存在的模型误差,将组合预测的方法引入地方税收收入预测中,构建基于Cubic模型和ARIMA模型的非负组合预测模型.利用地方税收收入数据进行实证研究表明,组合预测模型的误差优于相应的单一预测模型.
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| 关 键 词： | 税收收入 组合预测 Cubic模型 线性回归 ARIMA模型 |
Mathematical models on forecasting the local tax revenue:a case study of Guizhou Province |
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| YU Yang
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WANG Shihui.Mathematical models on forecasting the local tax revenue:a case study of Guizhou Province[J].Journal of Hubei University(Natural Science Edition),2012,34(1):21-25. |
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| Authors: | YU Yang WANG Shihui |
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| Institution: | (School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Hubei University,Wuhan 430062,China) |
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| Abstract: | Three mathematical single models were presented,and aiming at the error of single models,it presented a method by using combining forecast for forecasting the local tax revenue.This paper constructed a combining forecast model with non-negative weights based on Cubic model and ARIMA model.In summary,the experimental results from the data of revenue indicated that combining forecast models were superior to the single models in terms of error. |
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| Keywords: | revenue combining forecast cubic model linear regression ARIMA model |
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