| 我国国内旅游需求影响因素分析及规模预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 关勇,麻永建,朱诚.我国国内旅游需求影响因素分析及规模预测[J].河南科学,2007,25(3):513-516. |
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| 作者姓名： | 关勇 麻永建 朱诚 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学,地理与海洋科学学院,南京,210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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南京大学面向21世纪教育振兴行动计划（985计划）
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南京大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 近20年来我国国内旅游业发展之所以形成高潮,一方面由于我国实行改革开放的结果,而另一方面更在于近年我国居民可支配收入和闲暇时间的增多.2003年上半年,中国旅游业遭受SARS的沉重打击,2003年下半年国内旅游业经历了迅速恢复期,2004年已经表现出很强的增长势头.就影响我国国内旅游业发展的主要因素进行分析,并对未来五年我国国内旅游发展规模进行预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 国内旅游 灰色系统GM(1 1) |
| 文章编号： | 1004-3918(2007)03-0513-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-19 |
Analysis of the Main Influential Factors of Domestic Tourism and Forecast of the Market Scale |
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| GUAN Yong,MA Yong-jian,ZHU Cheng.Analysis of the Main Influential Factors of Domestic Tourism and Forecast of the Market Scale[J].Henan Science,2007,25(3):513-516. |
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| Authors: | GUAN Yong MA Yong-jian ZHU Cheng |
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| Institution: | School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
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| Abstract: | In the past twenty years,the domestic tourism has grown fast.But in 2003,the domestic tourism went down because of the impact of SARS.However,the domestic tourism came back quickly.In 2004,the domestic tourism had returned to the natural path.This paper discuss the main influential factors of domestic tourism.And based on the research,this paper also forecasts the scale of domestic tourism in the future five years. |
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| Keywords: | domestic tourism grey system GM(1 1) |
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