中国地面气温和降水变化未来情景的数值模拟分析

利用加拿大CCCM a模式,对中国地面气温和降水进行了模拟分析,结果表明:①CCCm a模式能较好地模拟中国区域地面气温的空间分布特征;②从A2和B2情景的预估结果来看,地面气温的增加在空间分布上是不均匀的,大体的情形是内陆增温大于海洋,北方增温大于南方。降水量总的变化趋势也是不断增加的,降水量的增加主要青海西藏一带,华南地区在21世纪末期降水量会有所减少;③模拟结果还表明,未来中国区域的地面温度是持续增加的,即使从1990年开始采用了减少温室气体排放的措施,其后的增温趋势依然很明显,直到21世纪中期,才能明显的看出采取减少温室气体排放的措施对缓解增温趋势的效果。

Modelling Air Temperature and Precipitation Variability over China

In this paper,CCCma,the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,is employed to simulate the baseline(1961-1990) and future 2010-2100 air temperature and precipitation over China under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios.Major findings are as follows:(1) The comparison between the simulated and the observed baseline results shows that CCCma can well simulate the local distribution characteristics of temperature and the basic features of precipitation over China;(2) The air temperature and precipitation,especially the air temperature over China will experience a continuous increase during 21st century.The increase of air temperature is much more significant over north China than over south China.The maximum precipitation increase is located over Qinghai and Tibet,while the precipitation over south China may experience a slight reduction;(3) Even though the greenhouse gas emissions are reduced from now on,the trend of the increase in the air temperature over China may not slowdown till the middle of the 21 century.