双信度下考虑专家风险态度的突发事件等级确定方法

群体性突发享件等级的确定是启动分级响应进行科学应对的决策依据，需要蔽合多领域不同专家的判断进行综合研判。考虑专家面对不确定决策的风险态度，提出一种“专家权重和自我可靠度”双信度下突发亭件等级确定方法。根据双信度，构建了考虑专家风险态度和突发事件等级语义相关性的完备化证据生成方法；综合考虑证据的主客观信息提出一种改进的证据融合方法，使融合結果中充分有效保留专家的原始倾向信息；进一步，给出一种蔽合结果区分度检验方法，以规避等级间区分度不高的情况；最后，通过算例验证了方法的可行性与科学性。实验結果表明，专家的自我可靠度和风险认知态度会影响享件等级研判结果，综合考虑此两种因素的突发享件等级碉定方法能够提升决策的可靠性和可信度。

A Method for Determination of Emergency Levels Considering the Risk Attitude of Experts in Double Reliability

The determination of mass emergency levels is the decision-making basis for starting scientific hierarchical responses, which needs to integrate the judgment of different experts in many fields for a comprehensive judgment. Considering the risk attitude of experts facing uncertain decision-making? a method is proposed to determine the emergency level based on the double reliability of "expert weight and self-reliability". First, based on the double reliability, a complete evidence generation method considering expert risk attitude and the semantic relevance of emergency level is constructed. In addition, an improved evidence fusion method is proposed by comprehensively considering the subjective and objective information of evidence, so that the original tendency information of experts can be fully and effectively retained in the fusion results. Moreover, a discrimination test method of fusion results is given to avoid the situation of low differentiation between levels. Furthermore? the feasibility and scientificity of the method are verified by an example. The experimental results show that the self-reliability and risk attitude of experts will affect the results of emergency level judgment. The method of determination of the emergency level considering these two factors can improve the reliability and credibility of decision-making.