基于SWIM模型模拟气候变化对青海湖布哈河流域水文过程的影响

本文基于青藏高原地区气候变化的预估结果,利用SWIM 模型模拟了该地区最具有代表性的布哈河流域在未来3个时期(2016-2035年、2046-2065年和2081-2100年)径流深、实际蒸散量和深层渗漏量的变化及其时空格局.结果表明:1)模型对布哈河流域径流的模拟结果较为理想,表明SWIM 模型在高寒地区有较强的适用性;2)随着降水的增加和气温的持续上升,流域的径流深和实际蒸散量在2100年前会持续增加,而深层渗漏量则先下降后上升;3)气候变化对流域水文过程的影响有季节差异性,其对深层渗漏量的影响集中于7、8月,而对径流深和实际蒸散量的影响主要在6-8月期间;4)流域各水文过程及其在不同时期的变化呈现一定的空间差异性. 

Simulating the influence of climate change on hydrological processes at Buha River basin of Qinghai Lake by SWIM

Qinghai Lake basin is a key area to maintain the ecological security of eastern Tibetan Plateau.Projections of climate change in Tibetan Plateau and SWIM (soil and water integrated model) are used to predict potential changes in runoff depth,evapotranspiration and deep percolation at Buha River Basin in three periods of the future (2016-2035,2046-2065,2081-2100).Monthly runoff simulated by SWIM is found to correspond well with measured values.Therefore SWIM model can be applied to alpine regions.With increase in precipitation and rise in temperatures,runoff depth and evapotranspiration will continue to increase up to 2100.In addition,deep percolation will decline initially then recover and rise.The impact of climate change on hydrological processes varies in different seasons.Impact on deep percolation concentrates in July and August,effect on runoff depth and evapotranspiration is seen between June and August.Some spatial differences in hydrological processes are present.Increase in runoff depth will concentrate in the upstream and downstream areas,whereas actual evapotranspiration changes significantly in the middle and upper reaches.Further,deep percolation will rise slightly in parts of the upstream and estuaries,but will decline in the middle reaches.These results will be useful for water resources management and watershed conservation.