通货膨胀预期、风险转移能力与商业信用风险管理——兼论“三角债”的形成机制

基于风险管理视角，使用个体固定效应的面板数据模型实证检验通货膨胀预期如何影响企业商业信用风险管理及其作用机理。实证研究发现，当预期通货膨胀程度较高时，企业会同时通过降低应收账款和增加应付账款方式调整商业信用结构进行风险管理，以达到抵御通货膨胀风险的作用。作用机制检验发现：由于出口企业具有更强能力将通货膨胀风险转移至境外客户，因而企业调整商业信用结构以抵御通货膨胀风险的动机更弱；而改变客户结构因不能分散通货膨胀风险，对通货膨胀预期与商业信用结构调整之间的关系没有显著影响。拓展性检验还发现，当处于社会信任程度越低的地区，企业调整商业信用结构以抵御通货膨胀风险的动机更强。

Inflation Expectation,Risk Transfer Ability,and Commercial Credit Risk Management

From the perspective of risk management, this paper empirically studied the effect of inflation expectation on the adjustment of business credit structure and its mechanism. It will not only help reveal the causes of the formation of “triangular debts” among enterprises, but also reveal the micro-transmission mechanism of inflation risk. The research finds that when the expected inflation is high, enterprises will adjust the commercial credit structure to manage risk by reducing accounts receivable and increasing accounts payable, so as to resist the inflation risk. The mechanism test finds that because export enterprises have a stronger ability to transfer the inflation risk to overseas customers, the motivation of enterprises to adjust the commercial credit structure to resist the inflation risk is weaker. However, changing the customer structure cannot disperse the inflation risk, which has no significant impact on the relationship between inflation expectation and the adjustment of the commercial credit structure. The expansion test also finds that as the degree of social trust decreases, the motivation of enterprises to adjust their commercial credit structure to resist the risk of inflation increases.