人民币汇率变化对我国制造业就业的影响

基于2013—2018年全国31个省、直辖市、自治区（未含港澳台地区）的制造业面板数据，建立固定效应面板数据模型，实证研究人民币汇率变化对我国制造业就业的影响态势及影响渠道。研究结果表明:人民币升值会导致我国制造业就业的总体水平出现下降。虽然人民币升值通过产业结构渠道和外商投资渠道可在一定程度上促进我国制造业就业，但同时，通过贸易渠道和劳动生产率渠道会负向影响我国制造业的就业水平，且负向影响显著高于正向影响。建议政府密切监测出口企业对人民币升值的承受能力，积极推动科技体制改革，突破核心技术瓶颈，制定和实施扩大内需的财政政策，创造良好的营商环境，促进经济增长，提高就业水平。

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Manufacturing Employment of China

Based on the manufacturing panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan) from 2013 to 2018,this paper establishes a fixed effect panel data model to study in an empirical manner the impact of RMB exchange rate change on manufacturing employment in China.The results show that RMB appreciation leads to higher unemployment in manufacturing industry in China.Although RMB appreciation can promote the manufacturing employment of China to a certain extent through the channels of industrial structure and foreign investment,it has a significantly higher negative impact on it at the same time through the channels of trade and labor productivit.It is therefore suggested that the government keep close monitoring on the ability of export enterprises to bear the appreciation of RMB,enhance the technoloical reform system to break through the bottleneck of core technology,implement fiscal policies for stimulated domestic demand and better business environments,so as to promote economic growth and improve overall employment opportunities.