时间成本视角下RCEP对中国的经济影响——基于GTAP模型的测算

作为潜在的最大自由贸易区以及中国应对TPP(trans-pacific partnership)的一项重要策略,RCEP(regional comprehensive economic partnership)谈判的迅速推进使其成为国际社会的热点议题,然而目前却鲜有研究在量化贸易便利性的情况下测算RCEP对中国的经济影响.本文利用改进的GTAP(global trade analysis project)模型,以时间成本量化贸易便利性,分别模拟了RCEP成员之间"关税削减"情景和"关税削减+时间成本削减"情景.发现关税削减只能使中国的GDP增长0.14%.然而,如果将时间成本的削减也纳入考虑,在"冰山效应"的拉动下,中国的GDP将增长1.41%,达到关税削减情景的10倍之多.此外,中国的消费、贸易及大部分行业的生产也都会因此受益.这说明贸易时间的减少将会给中国带来巨大经济效益,也说明忽视时间成本的定量研究严重地低估了贸易自由化潜在的正面影响.

A time value based evaluation of the economic impact of RCEP on China-Based on GTAP model

As the largest potential free trade agreement as well as one of China's important countermeasures of Trans-Pacific Partnership, the rapid process of RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership) has drawn the attention of the international society, especially the impact it might bring to the world economy. However, a few quantitative literatures have been found on the trade facilitation of RCEP while many paying attention to the tariff cut. In order to assess the economic impact of RCEP, this paper utilizes an improved GTAP model, and takes into account trade facilitation representing as the time value. Scenarios of "tariff cut" and "tariff cut + trade facilitating" are simulated, and the results show that the tariff cut of RCEP will benefit China's economy by 0.14%, and the benefit will be enlarged to 1.41% if the tariff equivalences of time are cut at the same time. Besides, the consumption, investment and the output of the most sectors of China are also promoted under the scenarios. The results implies that trade facilitation is an important barrier for RCEP to overcome and the researches ignore trade facilitation may have underestimated the impact or FTAs.