区域间总产出波动相互影响的网络模型

国家(地区)间总产出波动存在相互影响是全球化时代的普遍现象,但缺少其相互影响强度的定量研究.基于冲击在非对称的区域间产业网络上的传播,分析了区域间总产出波动相互影响的机理,并依据区域间产品关联,构建了以区域为节点的度量区域间总产出波动相互影响的区域赋权影响网络.通过对网络度关联结构、基础关联结构、核关联结构及非对称结构四个维度的分析,定量描述了区域间总产出波动相互影响的强度.实例分析表明,该模型及相关度量维度能够量化不同区域间总产出波动的相互影响,定量描述某个国家(地区)在多区域经济大系统中的作用,在区域经济合作、贸易规则制定以及全球价值链构建等方面具有重要的理论和实际意义.

Network model for inter-regional interaction of aggregate fluctuations

It is a common phenomenon that there is interaction of aggregate fluctuations among countries (areas) in the era of globalization, while lacking of quantitative studies on the interaction strength. Based on the transmission of shocks on the asymmetric inter-regional industrial network, the interaction mechanism of inter-regional aggregate fluctuations is analyzed. On the basis of inter-regional product linkages, this paper builds a regional weighted interaction network with regions for nodes, then quantitatively measures the interaction of aggregate fluctuations among regions, by analyzing the degree linkage structure, the foundational linkage structure, the core linkage structure, and the asymmetry structure of network. Example analysis shows that this model and the related measure dimensions can quantify the interaction of aggregate fluctuations among different regions, and quantitatively describe the roles of different regions in the multi-regional economic system, which is of theoretical and practical significance to regional economic cooperation, the formulation of trade rules and global value chain.