动态外部性与城市群经济增长收敛的实证研究

区域经济收敛性一直是研究热点,动态外部性成为关注焦点.通过分析动态外部性与城市群经济空间收敛机理,构建动态经济权重模型,判断区域经济空间关联性.然后分析面板数据平稳性,结合动态空间面板模型,计算技术空间溢出水平,准确判定区域经济收敛性.最后,以环长株潭城市群例证该模型和方法的可行性,并得出:①空间外部性是影响经济收敛的主要因素,技术空间溢出是关键,SDM较好地描述了此收敛性;②使用SDM分析时必须确保面部数据的平稳性,剔除短期周期性误差对区域经济收敛性的不当影响;③空间权重受地理邻近、产业结构和市场潜能的交互影响,是动态的,且对经济收敛结果影响很大;④环长株潭城市群存在明显经济收敛机制,技术空间溢出效应较显著,仍需要进一步消除限制知识和贸易自由流动的行政壁垒和交通瓶颈促进城市群技术进步和经济协同发展.

Empirical analysis of dynamic externalities and growth convergence among urban agglomeration

Study on the economic growth convergence is hot topic, and dynamic externalities is one of key factors. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of dynamic externalities and economic growth spatial spillover among urban agglomeration, dynamic economic weights are constructed to analyze spatial correlation. Then combined with analysis of stationary panel data, using dynamic spatial panel model, technology spillovers are measured and regional economic convergence is scientifically determined. Finally, an empirical analysis of Great Chang-Zhu-Tan city group shows the feasibility of the method and the following conclusion:① Spatial externalities seriously influences on growth convergence, which technology spillover is the key factor, and SDM is the best model suitable to describe this convergence. ② The stationary of panel data should be tested and ensured in order to eliminate the improper influence of short-run economic fluctuation and to improve the growth convergence rate of urban agglomeration. ③ With great effects on economic convergence, spatial weight is dynamic, and determined by the interaction of proximity distance, market potential and industrial structure. ④ With obvious technology spillover, economic growth convergence of Great Chang-Zhu-Tan city group is found, so the elimination of administrative and transport barriers to free flow of knowledge and trade can promote technical progress and economic coordinated development.