基于政府参与的信息通信技术标准扩散模型研究

政府行为能够对信息通信技术标准扩散产生直接和间接的影响,能够显著的影响到信息通信技术标准的市场潜力.通过对Bass模型进行优化,引入政府非恒定影响系数并改变市场潜力m不可变的假设,建立政府参与下的信息通信技术标准扩散模型(GP模型).基于Bass模型和GP模型分别对政府在技术标准扩散中有显著作用的韩国CDMA扩散进行分析,并通过经济检验和统计检验比较Bass模型和GP模型,发现GP模型在有政府参与的技术标准扩散的市场潜力分析上优于原始的Bass模型,通过实证分析得出政府行为能够对ICT技术标准市场潜力产生积极影响进而加速扩散的结论.

ICT Standards Diffusion Model under Government's Participation

Government actions have direct and indirect effects on the information and communication technology (ICT) standards diffusion, and can significantly influenc the ICT standards for market potential. By optimizing the Bass model, importing the government non constant influence coefficient ''m'' and changing the assumption that ''m'' can not be changed, the ICT standards diffusion model under Government''s participation was established, which was called GP model for short. South Korean CDMA technical standard diffusion, largely supported by the government, was analyzed on the basis of both the Bass model and the GP model. Through a comparison of the economic tests and statistical tests, the GP model turns out to be superior in analyzing the market potential of the technical standards under the government involvement. The conclusion was obtained through the empirical analysis that government actions can have a positive impact on the market potential for ICT technical standards and can promote its diffusion.