基于Modflow和ARIMA 模型的峰峰矿区岩溶地下水模拟及预测

为科学有效地了解峰峰矿区岩溶地下水的均衡状态和用水规划实施后未来(2018～2025年)地下水动态变化,通过构建地下水流数值模型(visual modflow模拟程序)和ARIMA降水量预测模型(R语言软件),对研究区岩溶地下水资源量和水位动态变化进行模拟和预测。结果表明,现状开采条件下,峰峰矿区岩溶地下水多年平均补给量为8 726. 62万m~3/a,排泄量为8 937. 96万m~3/a,均衡差为-211. 34万m~3/a,处于负均衡状态。随着矿区用水规划的实施和用水结构的调整,预测2018～2025年岩溶地下水位将呈小幅度波动上升趋势,降落漏斗范围明显缩小。研究成果可为峰峰矿区地下水资源的合理开发利用提供依据和参考。

Numerical Simulation of Karst Groundwater and Dynamic Prediction based on Modflow and ARIMA Model in Fengfeng Mining Area

For understanding of the equilibrium of the karst groundwater scientifically and effectively and to predict the future of groundwater dynamic change in Fengfeng mine area of Handan city, the groundwater flow numerical model and ARIMA model were established by using the Visual Modflow and RStudio. They were to simulate karst groundwater resources, and predicte the dynamic change of karst groundwater level. The results show that, under the current mining conditions, the average annual supply of karst groundwater in Fengfeng mining area is 8 726.62×104m3/a, the output is 8 937.96×104m3/a, and the equilibrium difference is -211.34×104m3/a. With the implementation of water use planning and the change of water structure, karst groundwater will show a small fluctuation and rise trend in the future. The results has a certain guiding significance for the rational development and utilization of groundwater resources.