考虑多因素扰动的项目关键链缓冲区间设置及控制模型

项目规划及执行过程中极易出现不确定性,故需对项目关键链缓冲区间进行动态调整以适应项目任务关系变化.针对项目计划关键链缓冲区间设置及调整控制问题,本文提出了一种考虑多因素扰动的缓冲设置及调整控制联动模型.项目初始缓冲设置充分考虑项目工序安全工期、网络复杂程度及资源紧张程度等因素影响,项目执行过程中将缓冲/资源绩效指数与Bayes估计相结合,通过对Weibull分布参数估计实现缓冲信息的递阶转换,提升对缓冲使用的控制能力,最后通过实例验证所提方法与控制模型的有效性.

Project critical chain buffer setting and control model considered multiple factors disturbance

There are many uncertainty factors in the process of project planning and performing, so the buffers of critical chain project should be adjusted dynamically in order to adapt the changes of the project task's relationships. Specified the problem of buffers setting and controlling, a new buffer setting and controlling model considering the disturbance of multiple factors is put forward. The multiple factors are fully considered when setting the initial buffer, which include safety time of project, network complexity and resources limitation, and the buffer/resource performance indexes are combined with the Bayes estimation in the process of project performing, while the hierarchical transformation of buffer information is realized by the parameter estimation of Weibull distribution, therefore, the control capacity of buffer using is enhanced. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method and control model is demonstrated by an example.