需求侧全球碳排放强度的度量及分解

利用非竞争型投入产出表提出了需求侧的全球完全碳排放强度度量方法,建立了经济体维度和最终需求类型维度变化的贡献率分解模型,以及包含碳排放系数、中间投入技术结构、增加值系数和最终需求4类影响因素的结构分解模型,分析了1998-2007年全球主要经济体和代表性国家的碳排放强度变化.结果表明:全球完全碳排放重心向发展中国家转移,完全增加值重心在发达国家,完全碳排放强度下降主要贡献仍来自欧盟和北美自贸区.各国消费的完全碳排放强度均小于出口和投资的完全碳排放强度,并带动了整体完全碳排放强度的下降。碳排放系数仍是促进需求侧碳排放强度下降的主导因素,其他3类因素对不同国别不同类型的完全碳排放强度影响效果不一,其中在出口的完全碳排放强度中表现出更为显著的国别差异.

Measure and decomposition of global carbon intensity from demand side

Based on the non-competitive input-output table, the global completely carbon intensity from demand side and its decomposition method, which includes the contribution decomposition method with economies effect and final demand types effect, and structural decomposition analysis method with carbon emission coefficient effect, Leontief structure effect, value-added rate effect and final demand effect, are constructed and applied to analyze the change of global carbon intensity from 1998 to 2007 in major economies (countries). The results are as follows: The center of global completely carbon is transforming from developed countries to developing countries, of global completely value added is still in developed countries, and the most contribution of global completely carbon intensity decrease is from European Union and North American Free Trade Zone. Consumer-oriented completely carbon intensity is lower than export-oriented and investment-oriented completely carbon intensity in each economies, and decrease the global completely carbon intensity. Carbon emission coefficient effect is the prime determinant for embodied carbon intensity decrease, and effects from other factors vary by carbon intensities induced by final demand and economics, especially significant national variance in analysis of carbon intensity inducted by exports.